BloombergNEF has published its electric vehicle sales forecast for 2025. The market researchers expect that nearly 22 million battery-electric and plug-in hybrid passenger cars will be sold this year – a quarter more than in 2024. However, with regard to the US market, the analysts have lowered expectations – both in the short and long term.
BloombergNEF (BNEF) is a market research service affiliated with the Bloomberg news agency. In its freshly published “Electric Vehicle Outlook 2025”, the BNEF analysts forecast developments in EV sales for the current year. Their calculations point to just under 22 million battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) that will be sold in 2025, representing a 25 per cent increase compared to 2024.
Key drivers of market growth include the declining cost of lithium-ion batteries and the ramp-up of production for more affordable electric models. Nearly two-thirds of this year’s sales are expected to come from China, followed by Europe with 17 per cent and the US with 7 per cent.
The report also predicts that in 2025, one in four cars sold globally will be either a BEV or a PHEV – meaning the EV share of the overall passenger car market continues to grow. However, for the first time, BNEF has revised both its short- and long-term outlooks downward for a key market: the United States.
“The roll-back of federal fuel-economy standards, the phase-out of the EV tax credit and the potential removal of California’s ability to set its own air quality standards, result in a notable decline in EV adoption in the US, impacting global adoption rates,” the report states. While sales in the US are still expected to rise – from a projected 1.6 million units in 2025 to an estimated 4.1 million in 2030 – this marks a significant downgrade from previous forecasts. Specifically, it results in “14 million fewer cumulative EV sales over that period”, according to BNEF.
China leads in sales and production
China continues to widen its lead over Europe and the US. According to the BNEF researchers, it remains the only country in the world “where EVs are on average cheaper to buy than comparable ICE vehicles.” And China dominates not only in terms of sales, but also production: as of 2024, 69 per cent of all EVs sold globally were manufactured in China.
Chinese automakers also hold strong market shares in emerging economies such as Thailand and Brazil. “These sales, paired with an evolving policy landscape in the US, has put adoption in some emerging markets, like Thailand, higher than in the US,” BNEF states, adding that this challenges “the widely held assumption that EVs will start in wealthy countries before spreading further.”
Outside of China, the UK ranks as the leading major car market in terms of EV adoption – ahead of Germany. As previously reported, the UK overtook Germany as the lead market in 2024.
Methodologically, the report draws on BNEF’s global expert teams and is based on multiple scenarios for the future of road transport. In the baseline scenario – which assumes EV uptake continues in line with current techno-economic trends and without new policy interventions – electric cars are projected to reach a 56 per cent share of global passenger car sales by 2035 and 70 per cent by 2040 (down from 73 per cent in last year’s outlook).
In terms of the overall vehicle fleet, the transition is slower: “Despite rapid EV adoption, only 40% of the global passenger-vehicle fleet is electric by 2040 in the ETS, far below what is required to keep road transport emissions on track for the Net Zero Scenario,” the researchers warn.
Colin McKerracher, lead author and Head of Advanced Transport and Energy Storage at BloombergNEF, comments: “2024 was a landmark year for electrified transport, with electric vehicles hitting global sales highs and rapidly increasing adoption from emerging markets across Asia and LatAm. Despite these positive tailwinds, we see slower EV adoption in the short and long-term due in large part to the changing landscape in the US. This shift in global adoption will also have major impacts on the battery industry, leading to overcapacity in manufacturing.”
Battery market will likely face overcapacity
On the battery front, BNEF analysts expect demand to continue rising, albeit at a slower pace than previously projected. The latest forecast sees battery demand from 2025 to 2035 down 8 per cent compared to last year’s outlook – a reduction of 3.4 terawatt-hours, with 2.8 TWh of that attributed to weaker EV sales in the US. This trend is expected to result in ongoing overcapacity, which in turn should drive down battery costs and intensify market competition.
“In China, average utilization of battery plants is now below 50%,” the report notes. “Despite a near-term slowdown, the long-term growth for battery metals remains strong as EVs are adopted more quickly across all segments.”
The report also highlights a growing challenge related to public charging costs. To date, many EV owners have had access to home charging, “which is typically 25% to 60% cheaper than gasoline on a per-kilometer-driven basis.” However, reaching new buyer groups who do not have this option will be crucial.
Meanwhile, BNEF finds that public charging prices – particularly in the US and Europe – have risen sharply since 2022, “pushing costs per kilometre above gasoline in some cases.” The authors emphasise that charging costs are becoming a key factor influencing EV adoption and the point at which EVs achieve price parity with combustion engine vehicles in various markets.
“Despite significant leaps in EV adoption globally, stable and comprehensive policy still matters in advancing it further, said Aleksandra O’Donovan, head of electric vehicles at BloombergNEF. “Automakers that lose sight of the longer-term trend towards electrification – supported by falling battery prices and improving economics of EVs – risk being squeezed out of the major car markets.”
Further insights on EREVs, electric trucks and more
The “Electric Vehicle Outlook 2025” also sheds light on other emerging trends in the e-mobility space. Here’s a quick overview:
- Extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs) are the fastest-growing drivetrain type. In 2024, 1.2 million units were sold – an 83 per cent increase. According to BNEF, these partially electric vehicles typically have a 38 kWh battery, providing around 170 kilometres of all-electric range – enough to cover over 70 per cent of total driving distances in electric mode.
- Electric truck sales are rapidly increasing in China – thanks to government support and subsidies, improving battery quality, lower costs, and heightened competition among manufacturers. BNEF expects electric trucks to account for 46 per cent of truck sales in China by 2030.
- Three-wheelers are electrifying faster than any other vehicle segment, with EVs already making up more than 80 per cent of sales in this category in 2024.
- Electric vehicles drive up electricity demand. BNEF projects that electricity demand from EVs used in passenger and freight transport, as well as electric buses and electric two- and three-wheelers, will increase 2.4-fold between 2025 and 2030.
- Solid-state batteries are gaining relevance and could account for 10 per cent of global demand for EV and energy storage batteries by 2035. According to BNEF, they are expected to be deployed first in high-performance premium vehicles.
- Analysts expect the EV fleets to surpass ICE vehicle fleets in many countries over the coming decades. Norway is projected to reach this milestone in 2030, followed by China in 2033, California in 2037, and Germany in 2039.
about.bnef.com (press release), about.bnef.com (Outlook 2025)
